Posted on October 4, 2005, and tagged as
Where else but in New Jersey can an announcement that almost 5,000 dead people voted in last November's election be seen as a failure by both parties to turn out the vote? (After all, an even larger number of dead people were found to be registered.) Yet despite a reputation for smelly politics and smelly highway exits, New Jersey is a state to watch this year. Its gubernatorial election has the potential to trigger an important shift on the way to the 2008 presidential race.
Where else but in New Jersey can an announcement that almost 5,000 dead people voted in last November's election be seen as a failure by both parties to turn out the vote? (After all, an even larger number of dead people were found to be registered.) Yet despite a reputation for smelly politics and smelly highway exits, New Jersey is a state to watch this year. Its gubernatorial election has the potential to trigger an important shift on the way to the 2008 presidential race.
U.S. Senator Jon Corzine, the Democratic nominee, is universally believed to be eyeing the presidency. He has deep pockets and a record of being underestimated thanks to his unprepossessing exterior and plodding speaking style. Trenton might seem an unlikely place to launch a presidential bid, but consider the assets New Jersey brings to a national Democratic candidacy: The state is the 10th most populous, is blue, and two of its neighbors are the 3rd (New York) and 6th (Pennsylvania) most populous states. Philadelphia, New York City and New Jersey represent an overlapping media megamarket, and with the expected election of Eliot Spitzer as New York governor next year, also an emerging Democratic regional stronghold.
New Jersey is also rich. Donors there contributed the 8th largest amount among states to federal Democratic candidates in the 2004 election cycle. And by the way, Mr. Corzine is one of them. He largely self-finances his campaigns and is the state's heavyweight political patron, spending $5 million on Democratic causes to capture the nomination (having previously spent an astonishing $63 million to win his Senate seat).
News coverage in the vicinity is also impressive. A New Jersey governor can count on reaching 9.4% of U.S. households from the top and fourth-largest media markets. Most of those households vote for Democrats.
Ambition, money and name recognition make a trifecta in politics, and Mr. Corzine has two more qualities that make him an attractive national candidate among party bigwigs. He meets the "electable" litmus test and can run as an outsider while keeping a firm hand on the power levers within his party. Witness his campaign for governor, in which he offers not a single novel or bold idea, but runs largely on an image of "independence."
A big win in November, if he can pull it off, would make him a Democratic contender to be reckoned with. Until recently, voters seemed to be eating up his Mr. Clean message, despite the incongruity of his blank-check patronage efforts (even his 89-year-old mother, an Illinois resident, gave $37,000 to New Jersey Democrats). But recent indications suggest the pose may be wearing thin. A Quinnipiac poll last week showed his opponent, Republican businessman Doug Forrester, trailing by only four points. That's an improvement over an average of 12 points this summer.
Though some forecasters believe Hillary's 2008 momentum is unstoppable, remember what happened in 2004. Democrats, believing they had George Bush on the ropes, opted for the "safe" choice -- John Kerry instead of Howard Dean. With a victory in November, Jon Corzine has a chance to offer himself as a smooth and comforting figure who could better exploit GOP vulnerability than the more polarizing Ms. Clinton.
-- Christian Knoebel